In mathematics, Buffon's needle problem is a question first posed in the 18th century by Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon:
Buffon's needle was the earliest problem in geometric probability to be solved; it can be solved using integral geometry. The solution, in the case where the needle length is not greater than the width of the strips, can be used to design a Monte Carlo method for approximating the number π.
Contents |
The problem in more mathematical terms is: Given a needle of length dropped on a plane ruled with parallel lines t units apart, what is the probability that the needle will cross a line?
Let x be the distance from the center of the needle to the closest line, let θ be the acute angle between the needle and the lines.
The uniform probability density function of x between 0 and t /2 is
The uniform probability density function of θ between 0 and π/2 is
The two random variables, x and θ, are independent, so the joint probability density function is the product
The needle crosses a line if
Now there are two cases.
Suppose .
Integrating the joint probability density function gives the probability that the needle will cross a line:
Suppose . In this case, integrating the joint probability density function, we obtain:
where is the minimum between and .
Thus, performing the above integration, we see that, when , the probability that the needle will cross a line is
or
In the second expression, the first term represents the probability of the angle of the needle being such that it will always cross at least one line. The right term represents the probability that, the needle falls at an angle where its position matters, and it crosses the line.
The following solution for the "short needle" case, while equivalent to the one above, has a more visual flavor, and avoids iterated integrals.
We can calculate the probability as the product of 2 probabilities: , where is the probability that the center of the needle falls close enough to a line for the needle to possibly cross it, and is the probability that the needle actually crosses the line, given that the center is within reach.
Looking at the illustration in the above section, it is apparent that the needle can cross a line if the center of the needle is within units of either side of the strip. Adding from both sides and dividing by the whole width , we obtain .
Now, we assume that the center is within reach of the edge of the strip, and calculate . To simplify the calculation, we can assume that .
Let x and θ be as in the illustration in this section. Placing a needle's center at x, the needle will cross the vertical axis if it falls within a range of 2θ radians, out of π radians of possible orientations. This is the gray area in the figure. For a fixed x, we can express θ as a function of x: . Now we can let x move from 0 to 1, and integrate:
Multiplying both results, we obtain , as above.
In the first, simpler case above, the formula obtained for the probability can be rearranged to: . Thus, if we conduct an experiment to estimate , we will also have an estimate for π.
Suppose we drop n needles and find that h of those needles are crossing lines, so is approximated by the fraction . This leads to the formula:
In 1901, Italian mathematician Mario Lazzarini performed the Buffon's needle experiment. Tossing a needle 3408 times, he obtained the well-known estimate 355/113 for π, which is a very accurate value, differing from π by no more than 3×10−7. This is an impressive result, but is something of a cheat, as follows.
Lazzarini chose needles whose length was 5/6 of the width of the strips of wood. In this case, the probability that the needles will cross the lines is 5/3π. Thus if one were to drop n needles and get x crossings, one would estimate π as
π is very nearly 355/113; in fact, there is no better rational approximation with fewer than 5 digits in the numerator and denominator. So if one had n and x such that:
or equivalently,
one would derive an unexpectedly accurate approximation to π, simply because the fraction 355/113 happens to be so close to the correct value. But this is easily arranged. To do this, one should pick n as a multiple of 213, because then 113n/213 is an integer; one then drops n needles, and hopes for exactly x = 113n/213 successes.
If one drops 213 needles and happens to get 113 successes, then one can triumphantly report an estimate of π accurate to six decimal places. If not, one can just do 213 more trials and hope for a total of 226 successes; if not, just repeat as necessary. Lazzarini performed 3408 = 213 · 16 trials, making it seem likely that this is the strategy he used to obtain his "estimate".